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Just as we feared, COVID-19 will affect the region

COVID-19 outbreak to affect developing Asia’s economy

MANILA – The Asian Development Bank (ADB) said the ongoing novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak will have a significant impact on developing Asian economies in different ways including sharp decrease in domestic demand, lower tourism and business travel, trade and production linkages, supply disruptions, and health effects.

This was based on an analysis made by the Manila-based Asian Development Bank (ADB) which went on to say the magnitude of the economic losses will depend on how the outbreak evolves, which remains highly uncertain.

“The range of scenarios explored in the analysis suggests a global impact in the range of US$77 to US$347 billion or o.1% to 0.4% of global gross domestic product (GDP),” the statement said.

In a moderate scenario where precautionary behaviors and restrictions including travel bans start easing three months after the outbreak intensified and restrictions were imposed in late January, global losses could reach (US$156 billion, or 0.2% of global GDP. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) would account for US$103 billion of those losses or 0.8% of its GDP. The rest of developing Asia would lose US$22 billion or 0.2% of its GDP.

“There are many uncertainties about COVID-19, including its economic impact,” said ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada. He added the condition requires the use of multiple scenarios to provide a clearer picture of potential losses. He further said they hope their analysis can support governments as they prepare clear and decisive responses to mitigate the human and economic impacts of the outbreak. (Melo M. Acuña)

ADB Pedestrian Entrance (Melo M. Acuna)

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